Future Notes

Precarious Resilience: Tunisia’s Libyan Predicament

Libya suffers from an interlinked political, security and economic crisis that is proving to be particularly destabilising for its neighboring Tunisia. The emerging conflict economy across the Tunisia–Libya border, the proliferation of non-state armed groups along with support from external actors and the backlash of increasing securitization of the border regions intended to contain the [...]

A New Phase in Turkish Foreign Policy: Expediency and AKP Survival

The forced departure of Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu in May 2016 and the attempted coup d’état of July 2016 against the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government in Turkey were catalysts for a new phase in the country’s foreign policy. The emphasis on the “civilizational” aspects of Turkey’s role in foreign affairs is diminishing and [...]

Energy Relations between Turkey and Israel

This Future Note* prepared within the scope of the MENARA project aims to provide a brief outlook to the energy relations between Israel and Turkey. Following a six years of rupture in bilateral relations, Turkey and Israel signed a reconciliation agreement on June 2016 in order to normalize relations. Several developments have unfolded at regional level during this [...]

The New US President: Implications for the Middle East and North Africa

By Robert Springborg The US presidential elections of 8 November 2016 will see two different visions of America’s future confronting one another. While most of the presidential debates have focussed on domestic issues, including the economy, trade issues and societal polarisation, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has typically represented an important area for [...]

Implications of the EU Global Strategy for the Middle East and North Africa

The Middle east and North Africa are in turmoil, europe’s security is inextricably linked to what happens in this region, and yet the eu has limited capacities to change realities on the ground. these are three of the main messages of the eu Global strategy presented in June 2016. the document presents europeans and the...