Precarious Resilience: Tunisia’s Libyan Predicament
Future Notes
Libya suffers from an interlinked political, security and economic crisis that is proving to be particularly destabilising for its neighboring Tunisia. The emerging conflict economy across the Tunisia–Libya border, the proliferation of non-state armed groups along with support from external actors and the backlash of increasing securitization of the border regions intended to contain the [...]
A New Phase in Turkish Foreign Policy: Expediency and AKP Survival
Future Notes
The forced departure of Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu in May 2016 and the attempted coup d’état of July 2016 against the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government in Turkey were catalysts for a new phase in the country’s foreign policy. The emphasis on the “civilizational” aspects of Turkey’s role in foreign affairs is diminishing and [...]
Material Factors for the MENA Region: Data Sources, Trends and Drivers
Methodology and Concept Papers
This background paper on material factors in the MENA region selects key datasets for understanding past and present demographic, environmental, energy, economic and military transformations. It introduces the key literature relating to each factor and it identifies the most appropriate databases to assess the conditions in the MENA region. Using these databases, the ways in [...]
On the Importance of Ideas, Identities and Values in the MENA Region
Methodology and Concept Papers
This paper evaluates the importance of ideas, norms and identities in the MENA region. The basic assumption is that ideas, norms and identities matter in world politics in general, and in the MENA region in particular. After presenting an overview of the debate on these concepts in the field of international relations, and their relevance [...]
Re-Conceptualizing Orders in the Mena Region. The Analytical Framework of the MENARA project
Methodology and Concept Papers
The aim of this work is to set the conceptual architecture for the MENARA Project. It is articulated in five thematic sections. The first one traces back the major historical junctures in which key powers shaped the defining features of the present-day MENA region. Section 2 sets the geographical scope of the project, maps the [...]
Energy Relations between Turkey and Israel
Future Notes
This Future Note* prepared within the scope of the MENARA project aims to provide a brief outlook to the energy relations between Israel and Turkey. Following a six years of rupture in bilateral relations, Turkey and Israel signed a reconciliation agreement on June 2016 in order to normalize relations. Several developments have unfolded at regional level during this [...]
The New US President: Implications for the Middle East and North Africa
Future Notes
By Robert Springborg The US presidential elections of 8 November 2016 will see two different visions of America’s future confronting one another. While most of the presidential debates have focussed on domestic issues, including the economy, trade issues and societal polarisation, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has typically represented an important area for [...]
Implications of the EU Global Strategy for the Middle East and North Africa
Future Notes
The Middle east and North Africa are in turmoil, europe’s security is inextricably linked to what happens in this region, and yet the eu has limited capacities to change realities on the ground. these are three of the main messages of the eu Global strategy presented in June 2016. the document presents europeans and the...
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