Libya: Moving Beyond the Transitional Mood
Future Notes
The Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) signed in December 2015 resulted in some relative stabilization and improvement of the security situation of the country, especially in Tripoli. Yet, it has not brought the political and institutional divisions to an end. The diplomatic focus put on revising the LPA during 2017 has shed light on the vested [...]
The Transmutation of Jihadi Organizations in the Sahel and the Regional Security Architecture
Future Notes
Since 2017, the jihadi scene in the Sahel has witnessed major changes with the merger of all the groups that were affiliated with Al-Qaeda, leading to the creation of a new and powerful one: the Group in Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM), under the leadership of Iyad Ag Ghali. In parallel, and since 2015, [...]
Iraqi Kurdistan and Beyond: The EU’s Stakes’
Future Notes
In 2017, Iraq saw events that dramatically changed its political and societal reality. Not only the territorial defeat of the so-called Islamic State but also the Iraqi Kurdistan referendum and the retaking of the disputed areas by Iraqi forces loyal to Baghdad had important implications for the Middle East as a whole and also affected [...]
The Riddle of the Sphinx: Why President Sisi Fears the Election
Future Notes
The riddle posed by President Sisi’s words and behaviour is if his regime is performing as well as he claims, why is he so politically insecure? Although threats of terrorism and widespread anti-regime violence appear to be receding, the political crackdown, including upon potential candidates for the upcoming presidential election, has intensified. This reflects Sisi’s [...]
Hybridization of Domestic Order-Making in the Contemporary MENA Region
Methodology and Concept Papers
The domestic political orders in the MENA countries are going through a period of crisis and restructuring. Since mass protests spread from Tunisia and Egypt to other countries in the region in 2011 a number of worrying trends have affected the forms and functions of states, regimes, contentious actors and collective identities. Conceptualizing these trends [...]
Religion and Politics. Religious Diversity, Political Fragmentation and Geopolitical Tensions in the MENA Region
Working Papers
Motivated by the need to inform the enduring and unresolved debates about religion and politics in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, this report focuses on the relation between social change and religious diversity and the challenges this poses for the state–religion relationship. It also draws attention to the pluralization of the religious [...]
Regional Order from the Outside In: External Intervention, Regional Actors, Conflicts and Agenda in the MENA Region
Methodology and Concept Papers
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been beset by a series of external interventions, regional crises and local conflicts – most recently precipitated by the Arab uprisings – that have led to major uncertainties and changes in the existing order. The aim of this paper – which launches Work Package 5 within [...]
The MENA Region in the Global Order: Actors, Contentious Issues and Integration Dynamics
Methodology and Concept Papers
The paper aims at revealing the current nature of the interactions between the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and the global order. The authors argue that this relationship can be divided into three separate issues: global actors, which influence (and are influenced by) regional developments, primarily the USA, China, Russia and the European [...]
Military Factors in the Mena Region: Challenging Trends
Working Papers
Although the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has witnessed a long series of conflicts since the end of the Second World War, it is now in the unprecedented situation where nearly all MENA states are involved to a certain extent in ongoing conflict (e.g. in the Iraq–Syria area; Libya; Yemen). MENA states are [...]
Material Factors for the Mena Region: Energy Trends
Working Papers
This report analyses the key energy factors and trends shaping the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s energy landscape. The unsustainable increase in energy demand, driven by population and economic growth, is exerting considerable pressure on governments in the region to institute significant policy changes and demand-side measures as well as energy mix diversification [...]
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